If Russia annexes the Baltic states within 90 days
December 2027. Marine Le Pen withdraws France's nuclear umbrella from all NATO allies. The US is 18 months drained into the Iran war with empty stocks. At 11 AM, Russia launches a devastating attack on the on Lithuanian's government with hypersonic missiles - followed by the launch of +170,000 Shahed drones over the next 60 days that completly flatten Vilnius.
The think tank Baltic Defense Initiative has simulated what a Russian invasion of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia might look like. Drones play the leading role in this scenario. Chillingly, the simulation is based on current estimates of Russia's drone production capacities and the use of drones in the Ukraine war. According to these findings, Russia is currently using only a portion of the drones it produces in the Ukraine war and can "set aside" around 7,500 drones per month.